The eye with wind speeds over 280 km/hr (Category 5) passed over Mission beach which is 110 km south of Cairns, 165 km NNW of Townsville and 130 km north of the wyloyard. you have to log in to see the paper in total. Are you saying Jim Davidson is a liar and ordering his monitoring team to fabricate data. I have an ‘opinion’ that while this may have actually been the ‘worst’ Cyclone ever to come ashore here, the times we live in actually helped. Australia BOM said Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this afternoon. Is Ken’s conclusion worthy of special notice because he has looked at all the evidence,and he has the skill set in cyclone study? Reported impacts include three fatalities and numerous injuries at locations south of Port Hedland. Yasi was indeed an enormous system in area covered by cloud, the largest we’ve seen in the satellite era. http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/tc_ingrid/faraway_bay_image.shtml, At 11pm EA time the Cairns 512km composite radar loop gives a good impression of the cyclone “hot” spots including Cairns and imho Mackay also a wild one, http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR191.loop.shtml#skip, The Strikeone site keeps up to a couple of hrs of BoM radar data… here’s the Cairns and Townsville radars: It remains Australia’s most destructive with winds of around 250km/h. The eye came ashore a few hours later at 930hPa,so the beast did not weaken. The citizens of Townsville had been told that category five tropical cyclone Yasi was so vast a system it would take many hours for the worst of the wind and rain to pass. Operational Tropical Cyclone Data : JTWC Advisories | BoM Warnings. Is he trying to tell the experts how to suck eggs? Val; stop peddlig other people’s muses and do your own observations. Tracy, a Category 4, struck Darwin in the Northern Territory on Christmas Eve 1974. QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh has finally described Mega Cyclone YASI as a “frightening and catastrophic” cyclone telling a quarter of a million residents in the projected path of the storm they only have three hours left to run for their lives. Val,what is Ken trying to say? Townsville shows highest wind gusts at 135km. The storm was roughly the same strength as Cyclone Larry but took longer to pass. Just listen to the oldies being interviewed and they generally coped. And that it is nowhere near Lucinda. They’d have full radar and satellite gear.They’d be moving to avoid the projected tracks days in advance. 1970 – CYCLONE ADA (Category 4) I notice the much vaunted storm surge was mercifully much weaker than predicted too. Cyclone Yasi (2011) Category five Cyclone Yasi crossed the far north Queensland coast near Mission Beach early on February 3, 2011, bringing peak wind gusts estimated at 285 kilometres per hour. Both parties have failed to press for at least a few more well-rated cyclone shelters,despite the best of intentions immediately after Larry. But the system is not expected to be as bad as that which brought Cyclone Yasi and the devastating south-east floods in 2011. AT 1AM on the 3/1,the wind was steady at 62 knots with gusts to 87 knots [161km/hr] probably from the S to SE as the anemometer direction was playing up,and we know the eye was to the NW crossing over Tully Heads. Of a population of 43,000, more than 25,000 were left homeless, according to the Australian government. Our ability to accurately make these assessments has been limited by the short (less than 100 years) instrumented record of cyclone intensity. At least one spiral arm has crossed my ACT, NSW and Victoria, “there is no earthly reason why people should die in Cat 5 cyclones”, “That doomed pearling fleet would have moved north or south with ease.”. Arlington Reef just offshore Cairns has seen stronger winds. Also, as much as I hate saying this, the Media probably aided in some way to keeping us all in a heightened state of awareness. The cyclone damaged 10,000 homes in the region and hit farmers hard. It’s a shame we don’t have a BoM that is non political, but we don’t. We don’t know how many of the owners were even at Port Hinchinbrook. Tropical Cyclone Yasi was a tropical cyclone that caused a lot of damage when it reached the Australian coast at about midnight on Wednesday 2 February 2011. And the Ross Garnauts? I even drive in them. This is the highest level on the Seffir-Simpson Scale and Category 5 is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 155 mph (69 m/s; 135 kn; 249 km/h). “lmwd, There is no such thing as a “super-cyclone” and anyone who uses the term can be safely ignored by sensible people who are genuinely interested in the earth’s climate”. There were three deaths in Townsville and damage costs in the region reached $50 million (1971 value). S,Drongo claims: “If you’d been at Lucinda at 1AM you’d probably been looking at a starry sky”. IMES ARE IN AEDT | REFRESH THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES BOM: Current Yasi track projections Local coverage at cairns.com.au Q&A: Preparing for a cyclone Email us your status and tips: news@news.com.au Evacuation and info hotline 1300 993 191 Register as evacuee at Red Cross 12.24am Some people are keeping their sense of humour as they… You mean with the ease those boats moved out of Hinchinbrook resort? Banana benders should beware after Yasi; this time Gaia has realty gone after those big black coal mines inland and their infrastructure downtown so it isnt over yet. [7], The rainforest around Mission Beach was flattened by the cyclone. I’ve read a few of Nott’s papers. At landfall the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported Yasi as a category 5 storm on the Australian Cyclone Scale, i.e. What do you know about energy distribution in cyclones that has escaped the research community over the last fifty years?? The issue is more just exactly how bad the cyclone turned out to be. It’s from the BOM weather site, and is a still from the 4 image loop as the Cyclone passed across the Coastline at exactly Midnight. Nothing bad ever happens to them. It then progressed and climbed the cyclone category ladder reaching category 4 just days later. Cue mock outrage rant …. I’m not taking a position on whether Yasi was a super-cyclone or not. 2011 – CYCLONE YASI (Category 5) That doomed pearling fleet would have moved north or south with ease. Clearly Cardwell was the centre of the storm. The Lucinda gauge was NOT recording eye wall speeds. Cyclone Yasi passed over the Great Barrier Reef, causing serous damage to some parts. Recent severe weather is a sign of what is to come this summer, the Bureau of Meteorology says, with the predicted La Niña event to reach a "similar strength" to the system that brought Cyclone Yasi and major flooding to Queensland nearly a decade ago. George was the most destructive cyclone to affect Port Hedland, WA since 1975. So, when Yasi started heading our way, there was indeed plenty of warning, plenty of procedures in place, and a concentrated effort on all fronts to ‘inform’ the public of the situation, if you can see what I’m getting at here. It is the worst cyclone to hit Australia since 1918, with 290 km/h winds. I repeat that radar imagery confirms that Cardwell was just beyond-no more than a km or two beyond- the southern wall of the eye. The estimated damage to private property and public facilities is believed to have exceeded $25 million. Cyclone Debbie is expected to have more severe winds than Cyclone Yasi did in 2011, with the category 4 storm claiming its first life on Monday. [1] Early estimates of damage put the cost at about AU$100 million. If you hear either a watch or a warning you should: Stay tuned into warnings. Damage was estimated at $6.2 million. Therefore, a defensible estimate for windspeed in the Cardwell-Mission Beach area would be in the range 220-240kph. Previous cyclones of a comparable measured intensity include the 1899 cyclone Mahina in Princess Charlotte Bay, and the two cyclones of 1918 at Mackay (January) and Innisfail (March). “What the record shows is we go through extended periods, hundreds of years, of high activity and extended periods of little activity,” Nott says. Luke what kind of evidence is this: Another La Niña event caused major damage to Queensland when Tropical Cyclone Yasi crossed the north Queensland coast in February 2011, destroying homes, crops and businesses. Joan was a severe tropical cyclone with maximum measured wind gusts of 208 km/h. “Witness those inland towns getting no wind and little rain when they were told to batten down for the big inland cyclone.” Er,what? I think you just has to look at Bligh’s face during her press conferences – she was really bloody worried. Since the eye did not go over Lucinda,their would have been no opportunity to see stars. webpage: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml (see also Figure 1). By Wednesday 2 nd the cyclone had intensified to a phenomenal central pressure of 922 hPa: a category five system located 300 nautical miles east of Cairns. Jonathan Nott is an expert on the incidence of super cyclones. MEGA CYCLONE YASI: Forecast Track Map (BOM) Map legend. I find it usually pays to be uninsured or act as though you are. With the Bathurst Bay fleet, their very lives depended on their movements and they also were most likely not insured so those very resourceful sailors who even then had the EWS of the aneroid barometer and knew what was coming, were still unable to avoid that catastrophe. There were no reports of serious injury or death in Australia. We infer that the deposits were formed by storms with recurrence intervals of two to three centuries8, 9, 10, 11, and we show that the cyclones responsible must have been of extreme intensity (central pressures less than 920 hPa). Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi Radar Loop. I reckon we put Spangled and John in charge of cyclone monitoring technology. A BoM shelter is always a good idea. Yes I noticed the BoM guy was pretty factual, which was a relief. for wind speed enthusiasts there are calculations and also comments about wind speed in his preceding post Cyclone Yasi knocks out weather instruments on Willis Island PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITIES FOR FUTURE WARNING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI WILL REST WITH TCWC BRISBANE. Contrary to Ken’s statement,Larry was not as strong as Yasi,and it was moving at about the same speed in its last half day until landfall. By analysing ridges of broken coral pushed ashore by storm surges, he has catalogued the incidence of super-cyclones over the past 5000 years. “The distance from Lucinda to Tully is about the width of the eye.”, http://users.tpg.com.au/johnsay1/Stuff/yasi_lucinda_point.xls. Tropical Cyclone Yasi commenced its lifecycle as a tropical depression north of Fiji on Friday 28 January and steadily intensified to cyclone strength northeast of Vanuatu by Sunday night. The system quickly intensified to a cyclone category to the north of Vanuatu and was named Yasi at 10pm on 30 January by the Fijian Meteorological Service. I think you got it right with the latex gum. You all be careful out there. Several Indonesian fishing vessels were reportedly sunk by the cyclone in the vicinity of Ashmore Island, with at least four lives lost. 1971 – CYCLONE ALTHEA (Category 4) Severe Tropical Cyclone Bobby moved slowly and erratically along the Pallara coast (middle of WA’s coast, near Exmouth), crossing it just to the east of Onslow on 25 February 1995. Yasi was at 930hPa at landfall,the lowest recorded of the modern era. http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=192&numberofImages=10&dateStart=0&dateFinish=0, http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=212&numberofImages=10&dateStart=0&dateFinish=0, All the latest videos of Yasi can be found on the following hub: Cairns by 3.30am neither wind speed (46) or gusts (72) reached 100. Given some of the contention around wind speeds, I am wondering what Prof Nott would make of this storm and whether it does rate as up there, with the techniques he uses to look a prehistoric storms? The Lucinda observation station was 40-50kmkm from the eye-wall when the cyclone came ashore,losing intensity as it advanced over land. The largest diameter reliably observed on the Qld coast,I believe. The cyclone is considered to be the worst natural disaster in Australia’s history. 1995 – CYCLONE BOBBY (Category 4) Mahina in 1899, and the two Cyclones in 1918 may have been comparable, although not on as huge a scale as Yasi, but they would have hit without any warning whatsoever, because there was nothing in the way of a warning system, and they had little idea what to do anyway. 85mm so far at Cloncurry with winds of 20-35 knots? Back before the days of ABC bedwetting even they agreed with you: http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s382613.htm. Winifred became a cyclone on 27 January 1986, about 450 km north of Cairns. Over the weekend, . These features occur along 1,500 km of the Great Barrier Reef and also the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says there is a 94 per cent chance of La Nina conditions in 2020-21, bringing the risk of a worse-than-average cyclone season. I watched the ch 9 extended coverage last night and the person who impressed me the most (between the politicians including the premier and the reporters) was the BOM spokesman; a calm professional approach amongst all the hype and hyperbole; did anyone else notice. And the Importance of Asking Questions, Measuring Old Corals & Coral Reefs (Part 1). The cyclone itself ,by one metric, is the roughly circular zone inside the highest isobar loop,which is always much,much wider . As the drum is asking, is it down to AGW? Justin was reportedly responsible for an estimated loss of $150 million to the agricultural industry alone. TC Yasi intensified at a greater than forecast rate as it tracked steadily westward across the Coral Sea on Monday and Tuesday 1 st February. Source: BOM. Get the same shot from the 256km view,and the ones from Townsville radar and you will see the SW direction of travel. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. The system quickly intensified to a cyclone category to the north of Vanuatu and was named Yasi at 10pm on the 30th by Fiji Meteorological Service. Bottom: cyclone storm surge. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO45 KNOTS BY 301800 UTC. Some of the anecdotes from Tully Heads are amazing – furniture sucked out of houses and just disappeared over roofs. They may be well below true speeds. The lessons we learned from those earlier Cyclones aided here in making this one less of a drama than those earlier ones. 930hPa guarantees windspeeds of 250km/h plus. Severe Tropical Cyclone Althea was at the time considered to be one of the strongest cyclones to affect the Queensland coast. The automated Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) weather station on Willis Island provided amazing data this morning as Cyclone Yasi swept past. Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi began developing as a tropical low northwest of Fiji on 29 January 2011 and started tracking on a general westward track. 1972 – CYCLONE EMILY (Category 2) surface 3 second wind gusts > 279 km/h. Severe tropical cyclone Yasi made landfall early on the morning of February 3, 2011 near Mission Beach on the Queensland north coast. These sort of estimates are cross-verified by decades of observation and model comparison. Judging by the many times I’ve seen CNN reporters covering the hurricane, the place to be is on the boat dock. Animate. So frustrating when you don’t get to reply! the little protusion to its south is Clump Point,and Dunk island can be seen partly hidden by the black numerals at the bottom of the frame. After watching News 24 and seeing numerous eye witness accounts first hand, I say val has very little to go on with Ken’s obviously biased post. This is a composite made of IR Satellite images taken from www.bom.gov.au to show the path that Tropical Cyclone Yasi took towards the North Eastern coast of Queensland. Going north, Lucinda has been hit heavier – as at 3.30am winds 113 gusts 145 down from peak winds 132 gusts 170 @ ~12.30am. Tropical Cyclone Yasi was a tropical cyclone that caused a lot of damage when it reached the Australian coast at about midnight on Wednesday 2 February 2011. Grow up. Copyright © 2014 - 2018 Jennifer Marohasy. here’s the historical list of worst cyclones from http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/timeline-australias-worst-cyclones.htm I don’t know. and check out his comment at 4.16 am Don’t you possibly think that it is not good for people to believe that this was the ultimate storm? The storm which started in the Coral Sea, destroyed hundreds of homes in the northern Queensland towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Innisfail and Cardwell. I wear out a pair of gum boots every year. The BoM and the Government are beating this up as much as they can for political reasons. The 1899 Bathurst bay event would have killed no-one with observation equal to todays. Cyclone Yasi began developing northwest of Fiji on the 29th of January, 2011 and started to move westwards. Yasi is one of the most powerful cyclones to have affected Queensland since records commenced. The Bureau of Meteorology says Cyclone Yasi will be a severe category three or four cyclone when it crosses the Queensland coast, likely early on Thursday morning. This was not just blind luck that made it seem less of a problem. SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT … Lucinda is only 40km from Cardwell which was at the centre of the storm and hardest hit. Understanding long-term variability in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that are of extreme intensity is important for determining their role in ecological disturbances1, 2, 3, 4, 5, for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss6 and for assessing whether changes in the variability of such cyclones are induced by climate change7. The cyclone quickly intensified and moved to the north of Vanuatu and was named Yasi at 10pm on the 30th by the Fiji Meteorological Service. It shows the eye coming ashore at Bingil Bay, and Mission beach is on Bingil Bay. Thirty people died in the tragedy, and the rest of the world didn’t know anything about it until five days later. John; Warwick Hughes would agree with you; he has an interesting post on his blog; http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=809#comments Way short of this 295 bandied around – which I assume was always from modeling. This is the highest level on the Seffir-Simpson Scale and Category 5 is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 155 mph (69 m/s; 135 kn; 249 km/h).. Tropical cyclone Mahina hit on 4 March 1899. from: www.bom.gov.au. However since the direction function completely failed earlier,the last wind speed measurements cannot be regarded as accurate. Thirty-seven people died in Innisfail, while an additional 40-60 died in surrounding areas. Our estimate of the frequency of such ‘super-cyclones’ is an order of magnitude higher than that previously estimated (which was once every several millennia12, 13, 14), and is sufficiently high to suggest that the character of rainforests and coral reef communities were probably shaped by these events. Seems to be some contention around that – it was certainly big, but was it as powerful? SD; as a veteran chart watcher and given the extent of current super cell like activity I say this cyclone Yasi is the largest in our living memory. Bureau Home > Tropical Cyclones > Past Tropical Cyclones > Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi > Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi Radar Loop. Fortunately, TC Yasi did not cause a direct loss of life; one death was indirectly attri-buted to TC Yasi from carbon monoxide poison-ing due to operating a generator inside the home (ABC News, 2011). good comment there lmwd! Then, after those others in the 70’s, we became better prepared, in the way of buildings etc, knowledge about what they can do, and what we, as humans needed to do to be prepared. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Brisbane said that at 5am AEDT Yasi was about 650 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of Townsville moving west southwest at 30km/h. From then it abated progressively. Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi directly impacted the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and parts of Australia, while parts of Fiji and Papua New Guniea were indirectly impacted. … Winds gusting to 50knots and more at Julia Creek? Cyclone Yasi was a very large (~700 km wide) Category 5 cyclone that impacted the central-northern region of Queensland and large areas of the Great Barrier Reef shelf in early February 2011. Cyclone Debbie is expected to have more severe winds than Cyclone Yasi did in 2011, with the category 4 storm claiming its first life on Monday. And the Meeja have not had a field day? Warwick Hughes has a new post up Cyclone Yasi has been exaggerated by Govts and beaten up by media “Clump Point just made it inside the NW side of the eyewall and is at the north end of the Mission Beach area.”. “the event was well monitored nationally and internationally by meteorological organisations”. You think a lot better. To get in touch with Jennifer call 0418873222 or international call +61418873222. So they are continuing to spout BS. The eye with wind speeds over 280 km/hr (Category 5) passed over Mission beach which is 110 km south of Cairns, 165 km NNW of Townsville and 130 km north of the wyloyard. This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre had Yasi at 930hPa about 80km out from landfall,with sustained winds at 135 knots/250km/h,and gusts to 165 knots/305km/h. Lua is the strongest cyclone to strike Australia this year and the strongest since Cyclone YASI hit Queensland last year, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said. Yasi was a very large very powerful cyclone and evacuation and other more or less drastic preparations were called for. Category 5 BOM,Cat 4 Saffir-Simpson. The Australian BoM warning for northern Queensland is being couched in stronger language as Cyclone Yasi has intensified to category 5. Over the weekend, . If a hypothetical fleet was working between Ingham and Cairns they would have moved north to the least dangerous side of the track. Is there any sense in this, or is it just wishful thinking? So how triply ironic is this – while the usual suspects here reckon the guvmint and AGW alarmists have an agenda of “beefing up the cyclone story” for political purposes. Gaia has a brutal way of putting man back in his “box”. in a swathe several hundred kilometres wide? This was the cyclone we were told was 800km wide! Frightening and Catastrophic. Or was it a “normal” event with “normal” consequences? Select a day or time to see its radar image. Gusts topped 100 between 11pm and 3am and have decr slightly to 89 @ 3.30am. At a guess no one measured the vertical differentials even close to SL. Also, if you’d been in Lucinda at 1 am you’d probably have been looking at a starry sky. Earlier in Justin’s lifecycle, 30 people were killed in Papua New Guinea and five people died when their yacht was destroyed. Tropical Cyclone Yasi was a tropical cyclone that caused a lot of damage when it reached the Australian coast at about midnight on Wednesday 2 February 2011. It intensified into a Category 5 as it impacted on the Northern Territory coastline before weakening and building back up to category four as it crossed WA’s Kimberley coast. Willis Island is located east of Queensland, Australia. One hundred of the people who died were on pearling fleet vessels, while another 100 were local Aborigines. Do you know why they are called gum boots? BoM severe weather meteorologist Kevin Parkyn said the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Anthony moved over northern Victorian and southern NSW yesterday. It was physically the largest system seen in the Coral Sea for a long,long time. Tropical Cyclone Yasi. The impact of the cyclone I’m not at all sure whether this image will show up here at this site. Thanks Tony. Is his ‘defensible’ estimate of windspeed for sustained winds,or gusts? MEGA CYCLONE YASI: Forecast Track Map (BOM) Map legend. 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